"Glimpses" of 14th Petro India

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The Future of Mobility: Outlook and Challenges

Electric vehides are not new. They have been around for much longerthan petroleum based vehicles. The advent of Model T Ford and the mass production of affordable petrol engines led to the demise of EVs in the early 1900s. Now EVs are corning back with a vengeance riding on the policy push from governments to dean up urban air quality and demand pull from consumers for cleaner transportation options.

In 2016, more than 750,000 EVs were sold worldwide, taking the global stock to more than 2 million. China is leading the way with almost half of global EV sales. China is already the undisputed champion of electric scooters. The world energy outlook 2017 (WEO 2017) of the International energy agency (IEA) points out that worldwide sales continue to be dependent on supportive policies and incentives and when these are reduced, sales have often been badly affected. For example, EV sales in Denmark collapsed in 2016 when tax breaks were phased out.

BP increased its forecast for the rise in the number of EVs by 2035 from the 70 million predicted last year to 100 million this year on account of lower battery costs and higher efficiency standards. According to the RA, EV numbers would touch 30 million by 2025 from the current value of 1.3 million and grow to 150 million by 2040 displacing 1.3 mbpd of oil. Though technological shifts such as car sharing and self-driving vehicles are expected to increase car usage, the total number of cars needed is expected to fall thus limiting oil demand. The !EA observes that if countries implement favourable policies in the transportation segment such as tighter fuel efficiency and emission norms, EVs are likely to touch 750 million by 2040 that would effectively mean a displacement of 6 mbpd of oil.

In 2017 Indices Minister for Power, Coal and New & Renewable Energy in 2017 announced that the government is looking for "India be 100 percent on electric vehicles by 2030". This target is more ambitious than that of any country in the world in terms of timing and scale, depending how it plays out. The IEA estimates that if the target was interpreted as all car sales to be electric by 2030, then this would correspond to annual sales of electric cars of roughly 13 million by then.

Among other options for urban mobility are uses of natural gas in powering future transportation, e.g. burned to provide electricity for electric vehicles, used to make gaseous fuels such as H, or Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), or converted into a liquid fuel. Shared or social mobility also poses some threats to the traditional model for mobility. Private ownership of vehiclesis expected to decline as ridesharing and car-sharing increase and spread to new markets. Shared autonomous vehicles could provide "seamless mobility," with a wide range of passenger experiences at varying price points available to meet consumer needs, first taking off in urban areas and then permeating the suburbs. According to some experts, the infrastructure to support and enable these technologies, and others like route optimization based on traffic patterns and smart tolls will make data the new oil, with telecommunication, cybersecurity, and operating system providers competing to provide`fast, safe, reliable, and ubiquitous connectivity for all the data that the future mobility ecosystem requires.'

Expert panelists at 15' Petro-india will debate the outlook and challenges in the future of mobility in the Indian context and offer suggestions on what responses would be appropriate from the oil refining segment, the automobile segment, the refueling segment and the respective policy push required from the Government.

15 Petro India will consider in-depth perspectives and challenges for India Policy Responses from the Government will determine the future of the sector. The conference will discuss the available choices and suggest to the Government to frame policies fora longterm future.

Organised By
India Energy Forum
Observe Research Foundation (ORF)